Influenza Pandemic Simulation

Presented at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on January 26 2006, this simulation was written by Booz Allen Hamilton to help chief executive officers (CEOs) and senior executives explore the implications of an influenza pandemic on global business. This 8-page document reports the results. Its objectives are:

1. To understand the implications of pandemic influenza on businesses;
2. To create resource-allocation strategies;
3. To identify means to improve stakeholder communication and collaboration; and
4. To develop next steps that organisations can take to improve their preparedness for - and response to - pandemic influenza

The simulation gives a scenario of the appearance of pandemic flu that overwhelms the medical system, interrupts supplies chains, and drains antiviral medical supplies. Teams represent government, healthcare, business, and international organisations.


The response strategies of each team include:

• Government Team’s first priority was to keep the public calm while limiting travel to contain the disease. It focused on transportation and logistics, prioritised health and security workers for treatment, instated marshal law, conscripted healthcare and security workers, nationalised food and water supplies, and highlighted the need for strong communication.
• Healthcare Team communicated guidance to the public and established priorities for treatment and medicine, directed the sick to stay home, unless complications arose, and prioritised treatment for healthcare workers, medical supply/pharmaceutical manufacturer workers, and security forces. It advocated using “recovered” individuals to fill essential jobs; keeping the pressure on maximising social distancing for containment; and communicating declining influenza rates to bolster public confidence.
• Business Team declared their first priority to be the protection of their employees and families including food and care. They prioritised essential business operations and chose to shut down others. Essential industries they listed are:
  
  
  1. defence industries
  2. entire food chain, from farm to fork
  3. entire medical supply and pharmaceutical chain
  4. telecommunications and communications
  5. transportation and logistics





• International Organisations Team prioritised collecting information, coordinating and prioritising the response, and harmonising communication - working directly only with the governments. They reserved the bulk of their resources for (developing) countries, except that they distributed food and medical supplies in the country of origin of the outbreak, and then worked to secure humanitarian workers inside and outside the affected countries, and to enlist foreign militaries (if available) to support the response.

Ethical concerns included a loss of equality for citizens. However, maintaining continuity of critical essential services was identified as the highest priority. Strategies such as the orderly shutdown of nonessential services to minimise social contact and the opening of alternative
communication channels were deemed critical. According to the authors, governments need to prepare for regulation and provision of food and other supplies and establish healthcare guidelines. The recovered survivors will need to fill essential jobs. The government will need to engage all sectors and participate internationally. The media can play an essential role in communicating "actionable steps" from government and business to citizens, and, thus, should be prepared to support the solutions to communicating management needs and mitigating panic.